Smash Bros. Character Merit (Ultimate Edition)

J-Yoshi64

Always remembering Walkazo
I imagine the challenge of creating a moveset for a character with such an unorthodox body type was appealing.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
Isabelle said:
I think Sakurai said he didn't actually put it in for the memes and said it was a fairly recognizable character.
I've been seeing what Sakurai's been saying yeah. But nothing he's said has exactly changed my opinion. One of the things he said was that he didn't just want another hero for more variety but uh... there's many, many, more villainous choices then a Piranha Plant. More recently Sakurai has stated what most suspected why Piranha Plant was chosen for specifically the moveset and having to get a little more creative with the moves. But it's still some of his wording that I disagree with.

"In addition, Piranha Plant is a very well known character." Piranha Plant isn't a character, it's a recognizable obstacle and/or regular enemy.

It's almost just better to view it as the joke/meme/etc. inclusion, because trying to take it as seriously as any other fighter (Even the previous so-called joke/WTF characters in Smash have a reason they'd one-up the plant on merit) just makes it worse merit-wise.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
The DK Emoji IRL said:
What about...
Steve.
Y'know, from Minecraft.
He seems to be quite the popular choice for leaks.
STEVE

Level of Want

Oh boy, it's that character that I see complained about everywhere who people would swear is the worst inclusion ever because of how much they find Minecraft overrated, it's fanbase annoying, and/or it's a threat to a certain sacred bear & bird duo

...And yet, I'd be perfectly ok with it. Granted I can't say it's a character I particularly WANT in Smash but yes, I would take Steve's inclusion in stride while almost the whole rest of the Smash Bros. corners of the internet goes nuts. Feel free to say how ugly and unfitting Steve's design for Smash is. But we have to keep in mind Minecraft's one of the most successful games ever. There's a reason Microsoft has put the game on everything including it's competitor's consoles where you're perfectly able to change to Master Chief skins for your character through DLC even on your Nintendo Switch. Minecraft has more outreach then any indie game (Though kind of hard to say Minecraft is Indie now, it certainly began as an Indie back when Notch was head of the game but it's in Microsoft's hands now and is selling merchandise and even online subscriptions specifically for the game). And if Steve is capable of bulding blocks on the stage it might make for some interesting fun on Smash Bros. maps. Hell, I'd be interesting in seeing a casual 8-player all Steve match to see what people could do with building blocks without necessarily trying to fight eachother. It's be fun to see something like that. If Steve is indeed coming, bring him on. He's very much an icon of modern gaming right now, I too would like to see Banjo come first but if he's coming to Smash at any point in history. Banjo may have to deal with either just not being relavent known or a package deal with Steve where Steve is for the younger and casual fans and Banjo is for the hardcore. Though I'm not sure about the likelihood of Microsoft getting half of the remaining Fighter Pass characters.

Estimated Chance

I do however feel that his chances are somewhat overstated. Yeah people have said he's inevitable because *insert potential insider/leaker* said this or that. But even for the ones like Verge that have gotten things correct about this game before, the Minecraft stuff has just strangely been the one thing still yet to appear. Now I don't blame Verge himself for possibly being wrong, he has multiple sources and not all of them trustworthy. It's possible that whoever's been telling him that Minecraft content is coming to Smash is not exactly truthful. I think Verge got a really good hand in the base game, he however does seem to be slipping in terms of DLC and/or outside Smash stuff (Such as believing the new zelda was not Link's Awakening related... oof). Microsoft also seems to be very buddy buddy which is definitely odd for current console competitors (I mean Xbox Live services will be offered on the Switch for crying out loud) though we can't be for sure if it will lead to any Smash inclusions for either Steve or even Banjo-Kazooie at this rate. If Microsoft does allow a character in Smash it will almost be certaintly Steve and/or Banjo-Kazooie. Steve on the somewhat more likely scale just because of Minecraft's popularity. But if a 2nd fighter's pass happens ever, I'd actually keep a look out for the bear and bird.

In short, I think Steve's still one to at least keep an eye on as a possibility. But I wouldn't consider it a near certainty like many of the characters Vergeben mentioned during the base game speculation period.
 

Koops

King of cowards.
But I wouldn't consider it a near certainty like many of the characters Vergeben mentioned during the base game speculation period.
VergeBen?

Listen...

Did he say Joker was in?

No.

Is he in?

Yes.

Facts are in. Dude's not right on it here.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
Isabelle said:
But I wouldn't consider it a near certainty like many of the characters Vergeben mentioned during the base game speculation period.
VergeBen?

Listen...

Did he say Joker was in?

No.

Is he in?

Yes.

Facts are in. Dude's not right on it here.
That's why I said base game speculation specifically (As in from the month or two before E3 all the way to November 1st). Joker's DLC. I know even in Base game Verge wasn't perfect (He never mentioned K. Rool though he did ask about him at some point) but he had a pretty good track record during the base game of Smash Ultimate otherwise. To say he didn't at one point pretty much get 90% of his claims right during that period is denial.

@SGoW I'll get to Arle sometime soon. Just wait a little longer
 

Koops

King of cowards.
I mean yeah he HAS proven himself in base game.

Looks like we misunderstood each other I guess or it's probably me who was being an idiot as always.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
ARLE NADJA

My Level of Want

Only played a bit of Puyo Puyo. Most I've seen of Arle is renting Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch. Arle is yet another Sega owned character. So in some ways it's not exactly a character I'm all for because if it's still even possible to get more characters under Sega's ownership after we already have Sonic, Bayonetta, and Joker. I'd want them to give Sonic another character. Preferably Tails. I'd be all for Sega getting the "Too much Fire Emblem" treatment if we managed to get Tails. But I'd understand why they may want to push Arle instead. Puyo Puyo is pretty popular in Japan. Just not as much worldwide. (They recently released an eSports version back in October of last year. It's however in areas in or near Japan and not in the US or Europe). And it'd actually be a proper puzzle game rep rather then just Dr. Mario which doesn't really bring any puzzle stuff to his gameplay. So it'd definitely hit a good niche and I'd be interested how they implement a puzzle fighter.

Estimated Chance

I feel Arle's among the many Sega characters that just got any remaining hope they had for DLC dashed by Joker's inclusion. And even if there is to be yet another Sega character, it's not a sure thing she'd be next as maybe next time Sega gets another choice they actually do decide to get Sonic another character. Or there's other potential series like Yakuza or even another Atlus or Platinum owned character. Also regarding Puzzle characters, Nintendo does have one of it's own it could promote. That being Lip. However, she was made a Mii costume for the Swordfighters. Mii costume may be good signs for potential characters for the next game, but as for being promoted in the same game their mii costume came first seems a bit doubtful. So I'm not so sure why they'd include a 3rd party puzzle character before Lip
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
Wow, I’ll just say. That merit wise, both of the newcomers announced are pretty high up there. One may be particularly higher the other (Though perhaps fans in Japan will disagree with my and many others in the west’s takes). But regardless, as someone who is neutral on both of these franchises. These are all well-deserved and definitely bring things back on the upswing after Newcomers have kind of gone a little bit downhill post-K. Rool’s release (No offense meant to Isabelle, Incineroar, or Joker. But it’d be hard to say they match K. Rool’s hype)

Let’s start with the lesser of the two. At least in the eyes of the West anyway, I’m sure if I were born in Japan instead. Maybe the two character’s hype here would be switched.

THE HERO (AKA Luminary/Eight/Erdrick/Solo)

We may have technically known a Dragon Quest character was coming as far back as January of this year. Though the expectation for a while that was going to be Erdrick and Erdrick alone. But what turned out happening is indeed a DQ character was added. But Erdrick isn’t even the default, albeit he is kind of in a 2nd best situation considering he’s the next different alt.

At first, it looked like Erdrick was getting Smash 4 Chrom’d by the newest Dragon Quest protagonist. But instead, they pull out multiple protagonist into one character that might actually multiply the merit then had Erdrick came in alone. Because from this, it feels like more of a representation of Dragon Quest as a whole. And while people can complain that it’s yet another anime (Hell, the art for Dragon Quest most notably being done by Akira “DBZ” Toriyama himself) swordsmen. The franchise definitely left it’s mark on gaming history, even if that history is much more appreciated back in Japan then it does in the West.

It doesn’t help that we were kinda spoiled on this nearly a half a year and may have been better served showing us in the direct that had a big segment to the new game months ago especially since the main character was indeed the default for Smash. But perhaps either they didn’t have the trailer ready and/or they wanted to make sure E3 would have at least more then one character to show. Which if that’s the case was understandable.

When these heroes drop, I expect it to perhaps be the final nail in the coffin (If the spirit wasn’t already that) for Geno as the Mii costume will probably come back. Though hopefully the content is more generous then with Final Fantasy and Cloud. But anyway, I;m sure there were many overjoyed japanese fans made happy with these characters’ inclusions. And while many of us in the west won’t exactly share the same sentiment. Perhaps in time we’ll come to find just what Japan sees in these characters that made them the video game equivalent of rock stars over there. I am certain to give them a shot.

BANJO-KAZOOIE

I would say I have no words for this (In a good way), but you know I’m going to be super glowing about this inclusion that I may end up just saying too much.

I’ll say it right now. This may not be just a really awesome inclusion, this might be the best merited inclusion of this game’s speculation period. Maybe even the most merited 3rd party besides perhaps Mega Man and maybe Pac-Man too. And keep in mind, I’ve hardly played much of the Banjo Kazoo games. Most I remember is renting Tooie for a short while and most I remember was Bottles’ death at the start. This isn’t coming from a biased, longtime Banjo-Kazooie fan. Even from a neutral perspective I understand what it means to have Banjo back alongside many Nintendo characters for the first time since the N64 era as well as the many hardships that the franchise’s fans have gone through ever since Rare was purchased by Microsoft. Which has been and funnily enough still is supposed to be a competing console maker.

Just really think about this. Had Microsoft never bought Rare, Banjo might of been in Smash as early as Melee or at the very least came in for Brawl. It feels like a long lost son had reunited with his family after 2 2 decades of being apart, because their adopted family has never allowed them to see or even talk with the old family until recently.

Let me just list down the comparisons of why Banjo is one of the biggest 3rd party inclusions (Again not THE biggest. Megaman and Pac-Man I feel still have a huge leg up on that department in some way or another). Despite at it’s surface, being what may be an obscure franchise to newer gamers by now.

Snake was our very first 3rd party character which was mind-blowing for Smash on it’s own. Yet despite Metal Gear having a history that started out on Nintendo. At the time Snake made it in Smash, Metal Gear felt more closely associated with Sony more then Nintendo. Not that I don’t think Snake wasn’t fun to have, I was happy among many others when he showed up in the Everyone is Here trailer. But as more and more 3rd parties have shown up. He’s still kind of on the lesser half of the 3rd party characters despite being the one that opened the window for all of them in the first place.

Sonic, while he’ll always be very dear to my heart. When he got in Smash, he had already been 3rd party for about 7 years. He was very possible, and he wasn’t ever as dormant as Banjo has been. Always love that Sonic was the first 3rd party to get in from legit popular demand. But even as a Sonic fan. There are 3rd parties that outrank him on Merit. Megaman, Pac-Man, and with how centric to Nintendo Banjo had been at one point. I think Banjo is higher then Sonic on merit as well.

Ryu’s a little harder to argue since he did help put fighting games on the map and it all started on Nintendo. Though out of the mainline games (As in not counting ports and/or just numbered titles), they haven’t released them onto Nintendo systems since Street Fighter II. Hell, Street Fighter got on the Dreamcast before anything on the N64 or Gamecube arrived. Ryu’s still very much a worthy addition, but compared to fellow Capcom brethren Mega Man. He just kind of felt like the Nintendo centric 3rd party merit has decreased over the years instead of generally remaining stable like Mega Man has. Maybe that’s a tad hypocritical since Banjo has had appearances not on Nintendo consoles over the years what with the maligned Nuts and Bolts on Xbox 360 and the guest appearance in the first Sonic and Sega All-Stars Racing exclusive to the 360 version. But I don’t know, Banjo-Kazooie just seemed to keep the feeling that they were very much Nintendo characters. I guess in a way never getting Three-ie has kind of helped that feeling, like they can’t get a proper game or big reappearance without it being on a Nintendo platform.

Cloud’s a little easier to argue being that of course Cloud himself at least until FF7 finally found it’s way on a Nintendo system via the Switch release was always kind felt like he was with Sony. Though the Final Fantasy series as a whole has more merit for sure then Banjo. That said these two are pretty similar inclusions in some ways. Going back to the family analogy from before, Cloud’s like a son that after a nasty divorce between Square and Nintendo, left off and had huge success on his own elsewhere has finally reconciled. And this is also kind of the closest we’ll really get to feeling like Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft all banded together to bring some of these characters together. Sony didn’t exactly play a part of this at all. Snake, Cloud, Joker, and arguably Ryu are all characters that probably would increase the star power if there was ever another Playstation All-Stars attempt. Yet they’re here in a Nintendo exclusive fighter. And here we have Microsoft fully playing along and allowing Banjo to appear here. Microsoft’s even in the long credits that will be on the title screen and everything! Which is surreal on it’s own. They still want to sell more Xbox ones and exclusive games for said systems. They have a new system coming soon that will inevitably try to butt heads with Nintendos in competition over consumers. Yet through what seems to be pure magic and willpower on both sides of the deal, we still managed to get Banjo back on a Nintendo system. And in some ways, Banjo probably has Cloud to at least partly thank for it. Cloud feeling very much like the symbol of a missed opportunity back in the mid-90s for Nintendo. Yet he’s found his way to Nintendo. Even if of course his remake still isn’t going to be anywhere near Nintendo. At least not yet anyway.

Simon may actually be another case that is arguably higher then Banjo. Where Castlevania is more closer to a Mega Man kind of inclusion where it just like a fiddle amongst many of the classic NES characters. Of course you could also say because Simon isn’t always the protagonist, Banjo has more clout to his own franchise. But that’s probably being a bit disingenuous. Just a bit of a spoiler warning I’m still probably going to have Banjo higher in the rankings later. But I think there’s a few outlying factors in Banjo’s favor that'll explain why when I get there.

And I don’t think I even need to go into detail why I think Banjo outranks both Bayonetta and Joker.

Though it kind of also goes a bit further then just all the 3rd parties. Banjo might be the most merited Ultimate newcomer thus far as well. Amongst the first party cast, only Ridley and K. Rool are his competition for the top spot.

Starting with K. Rool, they are very similar in that both are very much characters that are synonymous with Rare’s legacy. Though I look at it like this. Banjo is the main character of his own franchise, while K. Rool’s the villain of Donkey Kong’s. In most cases, I think a new franchise should have more merit then an additional rep (Though general age of the character and/or franchise may make this vary) from an already represented franchise even in cases of K. Rool having been one of, if not the most requested newcomer in the ballot. Maybe that’s a little hypocritical since I still have K. Rool above Simon. But one of the factors I get into ranking is how much the general Smash fanbase has supported them. Not saying that’s the only factor, like if Geno ever got in this game he wouldn’t immediately be at the top just because he’s had this huge cult following since Brawl (I’d still probably at least put him above Isabelle at least as I’d count Geno as kind of the legacy character of the Mario RPGs, but below Simon for sure). Another example regarding new franchises vs. more reps of already represented franchise, imagine if Tails got in who is my most wanted after Sonic. I’d probably do a joke ranking at first where I immediately put him on top. But on the actual honest ranking, I’d probably put him where Geno would be too. Below Simon, but above Isabelle. Regardless, it’s awesome to have both these beloved characters that were designed by Rare back in full glory in Smash. Banjo’s trailer being like a sequel to K. Rool’s was very appropriate.

And now as for Ridley. Honestly copy and paste a few things I said during K. Rool’s. Ridley’s an additional Metroid character. While Banjo is his own beast per se. Banjo does have a similarity with Ridley in they seem to be both characters people have wanted to play as since Melee. Just because of legalities, Banjo has felt like he was impossible. Even more so then the dreaded size arguments that Ridley has gone through over the years. I do think there’s probably a fair share of quiet Banjo fans that have submitted to Banjo never happening all because of Microsoft’s hold on the franchise, so while they have Banjo in their hopes and dreams. They generally flocked to other characters. But perhaps a strong showing at the ballot, willing partners on Microsoft’s side like Phil Spencer, and Microsoft seeing the dollar signs in their eyes of Smash DLC. Really brought Banjo to the limelight here.

And it’s that seeming difficulty and impossibility that I think really brings Banjo over the top here. Banjo is a character that might of gotten in as far back as Melee, he was even mentioned in the old polls. Microsoft buying out Rare changed things immensely in an unfortunate way for many fans of the bear and bird duo. Aside from a strange GBA game, there wasn’t much in store for the franchise until the Xbox 360 era… where the fanbase was graced with Nuts and Bolts. Which is best summed up by a certain JonTron reaction.


After that, it’s just remained dormant under Microsoft’s watch aside from an aforementioned appearance in the first Sonic and Sega All-Stars Racing game. Which was cool for certain, but still not exactly a big return that the franchise’s old fans have wanted. It wasn’t just that Banjo was owned by Microsoft, it was also because he was generally neglected that resulted in people thinking he was an impossibility. Like even if Microsoft did agree to let a character in, there was talk that they may prefer say Master Chief for a full mind blow or even Minecraft’s Steve (Which I reiterate, I wouldn’t have had such a bad reaction to it myself. But it’s what most Banjo fans were fearing) simply because it looked like they wouldn’t care.

But then what sounded like a miracle came during the time for Smash 4’s DLC period. Phil Spencer, the head of Xbox. Gave his consent.

Though even at that time it still felt a little too good to be true. Sure Phil would say that, but if Banjo still never made it. It’d only go back in history as among the many companies who would say as part of a marketing ploy saying that they’d like their characters in Smash. But never actually even gets that far. (Though to fair, that did kind of get us the Shovel Knight assist trophy and Shantae spirits). But it must of had an impact, because as it turned out this Ballot was more so for Ultimate more then it was for Smash 4. I just think the whole deal with Microsoft definitely had to make it wait for DLC though.

Regardless, just think about the perspective here. Nintendo made a deal with a company that is in outright competition with them for consumers. Again, Microsoft is still trying to sell Xboxes. And again, Microsoft plans to continue making new consoles in the future. Because of this. Banjo getting in Smash feels closer to if Sonic had gotten in the first Smash Bros. or even Melee. Fresh off the rivalry between the two companies back in the early 90’s. Yet somehow whether that’s through the sheer prestige of Sakurai, the Smash Bros. franchise as a whole, and/or just very willing partners on both side of the negotiating table. They brought back on what was surely a very requested character that doesn’t even have any new games coming that would be profitable to market yet for Microsoft unless you count Rare Replay which are just ports of the games. And a long-lost Nintendo character that has finally at least for this one game, come back home where many fans who grew up with a Nintendo 64 was waiting for them.

I very much heartily welcome Banjo & Kazooie to Smash Bros. The most ultimate newcomer of Smash Ultimate’s additions.



And now finally the rankings. Hero just manages to jump over Simon for representing multiple generations of Dragon Quest history. As well as Dragon Quest itself being an influential franchise on gaming as a whole for JRPGs. Characters like Cloud and Shulk have a lot to thank Dragon Quest for. But where they kind of falter is how they weren’t exactly characters that popped up a lot in terms of Smash choices compared to the likes of Ridley and K. Rool. Though it’s very possible that the Japanese side of the ballot had many Dragon Quest characters requested and that’s how The Hero came to have multiple iterations of the protagonist.

Meanwhile, I’ve kind of already said enough about Banjo. Has been a want since Melee, is a brand new franchise, and the sheer perceived difficulty and the return of a character that has been pretty dormant for years just amplify this to huge levels that somehow bring this above both the end of the Too Big memes and perhaps the most requested first party Newcomer from the ballot. Banjo’s the type of inclusion that reminds me again why I love awaiting who the next Smash character will be. I may hit bumps and falls along the way such as with Dark Pit, or Piranha Plant. But at the end of the day, Smash still provides us with some of the best and most welcome inclusions ever. Not every inclusion will hit it’s mark with everybody. But when you get a character that truly, truly, belongs or at least you really, really wanted. For longtime gamers, there’s almost nothing better then that feeling.

UNIQUE RANKINGS

#1. Banjo-Kazooie
#2. Ridley
#3. King K. Rool
#4. The Hero
#5. Simon Belmont
#6. Isabelle
#7. Inklings
#8. Incineroar
#9. Joker

ECHO FIGHTER RANKINGS

#1. Ken
#2. Dark Samus
#3. Chrom
#4. Daisy
#5. Richter Belmont

SONICMARIO.EXE IS BROKEN

#WHO CARES? BANJO IS HERE!. Piranha Plant
 

Doctor Healmore

Shine Sprite
Poll Committee
I must say, Banjo & Kazooie was a pretty dang amazing reveal. I mean, I have literally no history with his games, but knowing just how much of a dream come true that was for many people...I fully agree with what you said. Truly the most ultimate newcomer for Ultimate yet.
 

J-Yoshi64

Always remembering Walkazo
Northern Verve said:
And while many of us in the west won’t exactly share the same sentiment. Perhaps in time we’ll come to find just what Japan sees in these characters that made them the video game equivalent of rock stars over there.
The answer in a lengthy Twitter thread.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
Now that we have a bit of a better look at what's being chosen for DLC. I thought I'd put up every character I've given merit rating in this thread thus far (Besides those who were confirmed of course).

Basically, the choices have made me more sure of a few things. Such as Spirits may in fact be signs the character is not in the fighter pass. However there is at least the catch that if there is ever a 2nd season of the fighter pass or there are individual characters added outside of the pass like Piranha Plant was. That they'd certainly be back on the table. Another note is I think they'll generally be all 3rd party, and the only exceptions 1st party wise may be if it's a Corrin situation where it's a new game. Though at the very least I don't think it would be Three Houses this time. It'd probably be a Gen 8 Pokemon most likely.

All in all, this practically purges alot of the characters I covered in this thread. And not even like a Thanos half-and-half kind of deal. Like literally only a few have a legit chance. Granted it's not like I've covered every single possible character and these few are the obvious choices. You have stuff like Phoenix Wright, Dante, another Namco rep and many more that still have a legit shot at being among the final two on this pass. For anyone hoping for more 1st party characters or worthy secondary 3rd parties and/or indies. It's looking pretty grim.

Strong Possibility
Dragonborn or Doomguy (Pretty much a Besthesda rep in general I’m meaning)
Crash Bandicoot

Still have a chance even if Small
Sans
Okami
Sora
Monokuma
Spyro
Reimu
Arle Nadja

Spirit (May come if there’s more outside this first Fighter Pass, but for now Doubt it)
Rayman
Wonder Red
Chorus Kids
Dixie Kong
Celica
Stunt Racer
Fawful
Paper Mario
Balloon Fighter
Impa
Dimentio
Captain Toad
Shantae
Dr. Eggman
Kamek
Pauline
Tetra/Toon Zelda
Bandana Dee

The one Assist Trophy Exception (If it happens at all, it will be just him)
Waluigi

Mii Costume (Even unlikelier then if they were just a spirit but not quite as dead in chances as an Assist)
Rex
Chibi-Robo
Tails
Geno (Not confirmed per se, but I feel like we all know it’s coming as soon as DQ Hero drops)
Chocobo (Same with Geno)
Steve (Again not confirmed, but I feel like this might be where the rumored Minecraft content possibly comes in)

Assist Trophy/Pokemon (Dead as a doornail)
Takamaru
Shovel Knight
Spring Man
Issac
Bomberman
Ashley
Gardevoir

Incineroar Already Has The Gen 7 Spot
Decidueye

Boss
Marx

Never Released in Japan Tier
Mike Jones
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
So... after that Hero presentation. I think it's time to give a bit of an update on a certain character who we all thought was going to get his final nail in the coffin but may have surprisingly didn't. That of course being Geno. I even said in the last post pre-emptively putting him in the Mii costume expecting it like everything else. But even though the presentation did have a Mii costume section. Geno's did not show up.

I think this brings us to a glass half-full, half-empty situation.

So first let's list the good news for Geno fans. Outside of course being that Geno has survived being Mii costume'd in Ultimate. Geno is a character Sakurai aware of and has fondness for. He said it back in the Brawl days and he said it as recently as 2015. Many picks that were popular in the Brawl era of Speculation and remained popular ever since has made it like Ridley, K. Rool, and perhaps Banjo could somewhat count too. And Geno was among those cult followings back in the day. It really seems like the only thing in Geno's way is Square's approval

...And that may be still a huge impediment as we get into the bad news. Some Geno fans are certainly hyped, their character has survived on what was though going to be an inevitable return of just a costume. Some may even say he has as high as 80 or 90% chances or even outright confirmed as a result if they were that crazy. But we have to consider all the possibilities, that for one reason or another. Maybe they're not letting Geno be playable nor will they bring back the costume, which could arguably be an even worse fate. There's still some situations with how currently speculation has taken in DLC that's not good news for Geno still. That being Spirits, the type of inclusions on the Fighters pass thus far, and whether or not there will even be any other characters outside the Fighter Pass once it's all over. Another underrated possibility is the fact there are ALOT of Mii costumes from Smash 4 DLC that still hasn't returned for strange reasons including the Chocobo hat.

Spirits: With 3 of the 5 spots filled in the fighters pass, we have a pretty damn good idea that it's unlikely a character made a spirit may find it's way into the Fighters Pass. And even if there is one, it's going to be like the one exception out of 5. But it seems relatively deliberate that not only is there no fighters that are Spirits, but they're entirely new franchises.

Fighters Pass/Square Already has their spot: Just looking at our three Fighters pass character. We have Joker who's a Sega owned character under a subsidiary company ATLUS. That connection was made clear when the Tails and Knuckles costumes returned with him. We're probably not getting another Sega character in this pass. Banjo if he has any Mii costumes may possibly come with Minecraft or even possibly a Master Chief gunner costume. While Geno remains missing even while Hero is here, it feels unlikely that they give Square special dibs of having 2 of the 5 spots when they could spread it across.

Bonus Fighter/Fighters Pass 2 questions: Which leaves the only possibilities for Geno left is he is released as a bonus fighter ala Piranha Plant that's completely independent from the pass or if a 2nd Fighter Pass happened. And we must stress that neither is a guarantee. It sounds enticing to say "Of course there will be more outside this fighter's pass, Ultimate sold more then Brawl within just two or three months and will probably be the only new Smash for a long time to come! Why would Nintendo pass off free money by shutting things down that early?". I think the real problem is we're not paying attention to how Sakurai and Nintendo handled post-launch content for most games lately that makes sense to have but never did. Sakurai also mentioned how budgets was kind of low in part of the Hero presentation. Perhaps that's mostly a half-joke, but if budgets are tight as we get to the 2nd Fighter pass character. Are they really going to stretch it for another year or two easily?

Some may point out that it would mean Smash 4 got more DLC characters then Ultimate did with the 7 they got. But we must remember that 3 of those 7 were veterans. Two of which could of easily been built off Marth and Ness' base. You could also count Mewtwo I suppose since even though he did have references in term of Melee, they still had to mainly make him from scratch. So counting Mewtwo that's 4 out of the 7 that were much more "new" in terms of gameplay. Which brings this fighter Pass just one more beyond that. Plus this roster is already so huge since they brought back literally everybody who was playable before. Nintendo and/or Sakurai may feel content to cap off the roster at what will be 75 Numbered characters (82 if you include Echo Fighters).


tl;dr, Keep expectations in check for Geno. The seeming inevitability of the Mii costume coming with Hero was not the only reason things turned sour on anticipation for Geno after the base game roster was revealed. The way DLC has gone far has generally not looked good. Geno fans have to for the most part hope there's more DLC outside of the fighter pass. And even if we do get to that point, there are many other fans of characters that are hoping for the same thing. (Albeit I will say that Geno may actually have an advantage more then others if the Mii costume still does not show up before hypothetically more characters are announced)
 

Koops

King of cowards.
I doubt Geno not getting a costume means anything, honestly. They were just taking costumes not from Squeanix in general, but just Dragon Quest. Same thing happened with Joker, only Persona costumes were released alongside him. So Geno's costume wasn't even supposed to show up, which really, in the end, changes absolutely nothing. If this gives hope to the fans... I'm sorry, you gotta just keep your previous expectations.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
Same thing happened with Joker, only Persona costumes were released alongside him.
That's actually wrong. The Tails and Knuckles costumes from Smash 4 returned with Joker. It is strange how one of the last Mii costumes added to Smash 4 become like the only returning 3rd party Mii costumes in Ultimate. As we still have yet to see stuff like the Megaman or Namco mii costumes as well. But yeah.
 

Koops

King of cowards.
Oh yeah I forgot those...

Ouch, what a blow to my argument.

But then all the NEW costumes were Persona-only, I'm not mistaken now. Even then, yeah, my argument still is destroyed.
 

Gumball Machine

Celestial Guide
What about Tails using his mech from SA2? Similar to Bowser Jr. in his clown car (not an echo).

Mallow. People are fixing their attention on Geno, but I'm wondering about Mallow.

A dream friend from Kirby Star Allies. Would any of them work? Other than Bandana Waddle Dee since he's the most requested Kirby character.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
What about Tails using his mech from SA2? Similar to Bowser Jr. in his clown car (not an echo).

Mallow. People are fixing their attention on Geno, but I'm wondering about Mallow.

A dream friend from Kirby Star Allies. Would any of them work? Other than Bandana Waddle Dee since he's the most requested Kirby character.
Tails isn't getting playable using the mech. It was one game and it's probably fit better for Eggman if he got playable.

Just plain and simple, Mallow isn't getting in before Geno. Despite Mallow having a bigger part of the story, it's Geno who the fanbase has rallied around.

Bandana Waddle Dee's the only Kirby Character I can ever see happening for a fourth aside from maybe Marx who's already a boss. Though I guess you're free to suggest particular Allies.


Also with the announcement of more fighters outside the Fighter Pass. I'd like to apologize for my statement regarding Geno after the Hero presentation. For now I think he actually stands a great chance. Not only is there room now, but he's survived two Mii costume death knells. I won't even be surprised if he turns out to be the first character announced after the Fighter Pass is finished.

There's actually quite a bit of characters that could be re-evaluated now that there's a little more wiggle room. I need more time to think on it. But I'll just say that Geno at least is the one character that comes to mind who's chances just shot up immensely. I'm still neutral on Geno and won't really care one way or the other. But he's now a character I feel like we can put into our expectations pretty safely. I will now actually be more surprised if Geno doesn't make it in this time.
 

SonicMario

Star Spirit
yo sm what's your take on sans undertale in smash
Honestly the Mii costume is awesome. I was laughing out loud (And this time a laugh that isn't hiding internal screaming from the Smash speculator in me like it was for Piranha Plant heh, hell even if it was the ACTUAL Sans I would still be happier overall with it then I am currently with Piranha Plant :V) and think it's great Undertale got to have this level of representation in Smash.
 

Gumball Machine

Celestial Guide
I meant to say Guest Star, which would also include the Dream Friends. Piranha Plant's inclusion means generic enemies can make the list and Star Allies' Guest Star mode is playing as the enemies.
 
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