SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 4.0 on Reply #29)

SonicMario

SonicMario

Star Spirit
EDIT: PLEASE GO TO PAGE 2 TO REPLY #29 FOR MY UPDATED ROSTER GUESS

Alright, I popped out the Roster Maker to give my own guess.

Keep in mind, I wanted to make this a decent balance where it's between a dream roster, where some risks are taken that might be stretches for the next game, and a completely expected roster with some of the most popular and expected characters. Given the news that both versions are going to have the same amount of characters I am willing to admit that the roster I have sounds like it'd be a bit much for the 3DS to handle. But the purpose of this is to guess most of it, I'm pretty sure not all of these characters will get in nor do I expect this to be the actual roster.

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Columns 1 and 2: All 8 SSB64 Starters
Column 3: 4 Starters that Debuted in Melee
Column 4 and 5: 9 Starters that Debuted in Brawl
Column 6: 2 Confirmed Newcomers in SSB4, Plus two guesses (Little Mac and Miis)
Column 7: All 4 SSB64 Secret Characters
Column 8: 5 Secret Characters that Debuted in Melee
Column 9: 4 Secret Characters that Debuted in Brawl
Column 10: 1 Confirmed Newcomer in SSB4, Plus four guesses (Chrom, Shulk, Ridley, and Pac-Man)

The characters with a blue highlight are characters I'm guessing will be starters. While the ones in Yellow are Unlockable

If you're curious on the red section, I believe the game isn't going to go without at least one new Mario representative. The problem is I can't properly give a good guess on which is more likely. But all I'm predicting that is that only one of these four will make it in. I don't see more then one of them making it in.
Bowser Jr: Could be seen as Bowser's Diddy Kong, and have had a decent amount of roles in recent games.
Paper Mario: Say what you will about Sticker Star, the Paper Mario series still have left an impression and could be a chance for Sakurai to correct the Dr. Mario mistake in Melee by adding a different type of Mario but still with an all new moveset. If Mario RPGs are going to get any representation at all, Paper Mario is your best bet.
Waluigi: By now the Spin-Offs have been a large part of the Mario games since the N64. There's Mario Party, Mario Kart, and all the different Sports titles. And what's the one character that's gained a cult following ever since and has been exclusive to those games? That would be Waluigi
Toad: Call it Generic, but all you need to do is point at Villager and that's all you need to say that characters that can possibly represent a species aren't allowed. Plus , Toad's been subtly in some more games. Even if it's mostly the New Super Mario Bros. games with Blue and Yellow toad. But he'll also be in Super Mario 3D World (Even if it's not technically THE Toad given it's Blue Toad)
Again, I only think one of these will be in. Not all four. It just depends on whether they'd prefer having a sidekick for Bowser, RPG representation, Spin-Off Representations, or both historic and recent reasons.

Overall:
44 Total Characters
25 Starting characters
19 Secret Characters
34 Veterans
10 Newcomers

I was probably very conservative in terms of the Veterans. Only cutting Toon Link and Lucario. I'm not entirely well-versed in the Zelda universe so I won't be surprised if you Zelda fans don't like I didn't replace Toon Link with a different 4th Zelda rep. But I'm going with Mewtwo returning to take back the spot that Lucario had in Brawl. Either permanently in that new form or the ability to transform between the new form from Pokemon X and Y. Also I see 10 Newcomers as a fair amount but even I don't expect that many to pop up. At least not without some more veterans getting cut. (To be honest I'm starting to think I'm criticizing my own roster).

I do expect at least more characters then there are in Brawl. I might be underestimating the 3DS' capability. I don't think Sakurai would let the 3DS hamper the Wii U version so much that we get less character options then we did in Brawl. My expectations are at about the 40 character range, the Majority of them being returnees from Brawl. The reason I considered this being between dream and realism is I added at least an extra four characters above that.

Feel free to ask questions. If any roster specifics get announced I can fix to whatever it specified.
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess

Skimming it, it looks good. Still needs some more Ghirahim.

I would have liked it more if you grouped it by series, since I don't really like looking at it this way.

I really like your newcomer choices though overall.
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess

I don't think that's enough characters, but it's a good place to start.
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess

Matt Foley said:
I don't think that's enough characters, but it's a good place to start.
Click to expand...

I actually think if you don't think this roster is big enough, you're expecting a little too much. The roster number change of Melee to Brawl was 10 characters. And I expect that the roster expansion will be equal to that or even less.
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 2.0 on Reply #5)

Made a new more educated roster guess. Toon Link's confirmation has given me an idea on what is in store for the roster of SSB4. The characters in the big rectangle are all characters that are confirmed or veterans that are sort of obvious along with a few plausible newcomers.

The characters paired by two on the sides of the roster are either in a competition where only one can get in, or neither of them can (The ones in red) and the ones in green where one of them could possibly replace the other but there is the chance they both can make it through.



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COLOR CODE
Blue = Confirmed or Guessed to be a Starter and/or Practically Obvious
Red = If one of these are confirmed, the other is likely not playable. Also have a possibility of neither getting in.
Yellow = Unconfirmed or Guessed to be an Unlockable
Green = Either one or both of these characters are in

CHANGES MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ROSTER

Mario Series
Nothing has changed regarding those already obvious within the Mario series. As we know Peach and Luigi were all confirmed to no surprise other then being shown pretty darn early. But regarding a potential fifth spot, Toad being a part of Peach's moveset again with absolutely no color change seems to have had his chances decrease a lot. And as fun as the idea of Waluigi might of been. it does seem like it'd be a stretch to add him to what's supposed to be a game of Nintendo all-stars. Which leaves only 2 candidates. Paper Mario and Bowser Jr. If one of them makes it, the other isn't. But it's also just as likely neither get in and Sakurai's satisfied with the four characters already under the Mushroom symbol. My personal choice here would actually go to Paper Mario. Yes yes, complain all you want that Paper Mario might be just a Mario clone like Toon Link was. But if Paper Mario actually uses more stuff from the RPGs that Mario's incapable of having. The Mario RPG's can get the representation many think that it deserves. If you want a rep from the Mario RPGs, Paper Mario is your best bet. No matter how many suggest Geno.

DK Series
Diddy Kong yet has to be confirmed but who really thinks he's gone? The only change really is the possibility of a 3rd spot for the DK series. And there's only two candidates that really fit the bill. And that's Dixie Kong and King K. Rool. Both characters can't make it. So it all depends on what Sakurai finds more important in representing the DK series. Major role and more possibilities for a unique moveset would mean K. Rool gets the nod. Relevancy because of Tropical Freeze and easier to emulate (She could be a semi-clone of Diddy) then it will be Dixie. However just like the Mario series, I could also see Sakurai already satisfied with just DK and Diddy. And just move on from there. My personal choice between the two would be King K. Rool because he's one of the most wanted villains in the roster besides Ridley and he needs some much needed love after we haven't seen him in a long time. Bringing him into Smash would do just that.

Legend of Zelda Series
Last time I couldn't really pick a fourth spot for Zelda because I wasn't entirely knowledgeable about the Zelda series on what'd2 be the most important after the already eternal Hyrule trio of Link, Zelda, and Ganondorf. Because much like most people, I thought Toon Link was going to be cut. But lo and behold, Toon Link got confirmed on the Japanese release date of Wind Waker HD and actually give me a sigh of relief since I'm pretty sure this means we know that the Zelda series is not changing it's representation that was in Brawl. I fully expect Link, Zelda, and Ganondorf to return as I've always said. It's probably just a shame for anyone hoping for another Zelda rep that wasn't another Link. But Sakurai likes having more then one Link, and that's what factored into the return of Toon Link.

Metroid Series
Oh boy, while I'm sure Samus will have Zero Suit Samus still. The reveal of the Pyrosphere stage leaves me a bit worried about Ridley's chances of being playable. Even if it's kinda odd that Sakurai would be teasing the stage and it would feel a kick in the balls to any Ridley Supporters who waited this long just for Ridley to end up as a Stage Hazard. I suppose even if Ridley is shown, it's possible that it will be the Other M Ridley while a Ridley more like from the older games is playable. But I don't know how likely that is. That seems far more farfetched then when ROBs were shown to be enemies in Subspace but a character ROB showed up anyway. I'm afraid once again Samus will be alone in the Metroid representation.

Star Fox Series
Not really a big change, but as you can see I put Falco and Wolf together on the bottom away from Fox. Because there's the possibility they could cut one in favor of the other. But the green space means they could both be in anyway. And I kinda think that's what they'll do. But we'll have to see.

Pokemon Series
In my previous roster, I assumed Lucario was going to be one of the cuts. However the announcement of mega evolutions have suddenly made Lucario more relevant again. Plus the reveal of Toon Link means there's no such thing as a guaranteed cut. Meaning I think either Mewtwo or Lucario will make it in. And even a possibility they'll add them both.

Fire Emblem Series
In terms of Fire Emblem representation. Marth's the only shoe-in at this point. As Chrom of the newest FE game could replace Ike the same way Ike essentially took Roy's spot. However I do think there's still a possibility for Fire Emblem to have three reps so that all three have their space.

3rd Party (Sorry if this one's a bit long-winded)
Last time I gave 3rd Party four spots. Since then, I feel that while it is still the absolute maximum I believe SSB4 will allow. It's probably not the most realistic. I'm thinking Megaman and Sonic's spots are basically set in stone (Well more so Megaman's since he's confirmed of course) but as for that 3rd spot? Look no further on what was the other 3rd party that was in Brawl and ever since we found out who was working on the game what the most likely Newcomer 3rd party is. Snake and Pac-Man. I think if one of them are confirmed, the other likely isn't in the game. Snake has the fact he was in a previous game on his side but what he doesn't is that there's been no sign Konami's really done much for Nintendo lately. The only Metal Gear Solid game released on Nintendo systems recently was a remake of Snake Eater on the 3DS. And the next MGS game isn't on any Nintendo systems at all. Meaning unless Kojima's begging to Sakurai was for the entire Smash Bros. franchise instead of just one game. Then Snake's likely not returning unfortunately. Then you have Pac-Man who ever since we knew Namco was working on the game, we knew his chances sharply rose more then most 3rd parties. However there's one thing against him, he wasn't nearly as requested as Sonic or Mega Man were. His inclusion would be something entirely new. It wouldn't have been a personal request of a friend as Snake was, or a huge popularity like Sonic or Megaman got. He would get in simply because a 3rd party company asked if he got in as they worked on the game. Which may feel sort of like a cop-out reason to include him. Yes, Pac-Man's is very iconic but arguably makes less sense to include in SSB then Snake was. Because at least Snake's first game was on a Nintendo console. Pac-Man's been around since the Arcade days. And before even Nintendo really hit big. His inclusion I think would meet with mixed results. There will be Pac-Man supporters that kinda like the idea of one of the first video game mascots and it'd bring a sort of appeal to people who remember Pac-Man amongst the Mainstream audience. But that doesn't mean there won't be those dissenters that will think Pac-Man doesn't have a lot to do with Nintendo unlike Sonic and Megaman's history regardless of how many games Pac-Man has had on the Gamecube and Wii. Because you don't really see anyone hyped up for the next Pac-Man game anymore. Most people remember the arcade games, not the recent Pac-Man games. Both of these characters have questionable resumes coming in to SSB4 for different reasons, and I believe that at this moment if one makes it. The other probably isn't. But there's also the possibility Sakurai would restrict it to the two third parties that earned it through popularity only. Leaving Sonic and Megaman as the only third parties. If I had to choose which between Snake and Pac-Man I'd want more, I'd actually pick Snake just to thank him for even basically opening the window for 3rd parties in Smash. Without Snake being included in Brawl, we might have never gotten Sonic and Megaman in Smash. And it'd be a shame to see him go as he really is a part of the franchise's history.

STATS
32-36 Veterans
5-9 Newcomers
37-45 Total Characters

Mario: 4-5
Yoshi: 1
DK: 2-3
Legend of Zelda: 5 (Including Sheik)
Metroid: 2 (Including Zero Suit Samus)
Kid Icarus: 1
Kirby: 3
Star Fox: 2-3
F-Zero: 1
Pokemon: 6-7 (Including Pokemon Trainer's Pokemon)
Fire Emblem: 2-3
Earthbound: 2
Animal Crossing: 1
Pikmin: 1
Retro: 4 (Includes Little Mac despite the recent Punch-Out game for the Wii)
Misc. Nintendo: 3 (Shulk, Wii Fit Trainer, Mii)
3rd Party: 2-3
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 2.0 on Reply #5)

You know, I never even considered Paper Mario. Paper Mario, in my opinion, is definately better than both Waluigi and Bowser Jr. And because of Sticker Star, it's plausible. Hmmm....
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 2.0 on Reply #5)

I rather have no Paper Mario in SSB4. King K. Rool, Bowser Jr, Waluigi and Daisy are definitely better choices than Paper Mario.
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 2.0 on Reply #5)

i still think waluigi would be way better than bj or paper mario
 
Re: SonicMario's SSB4 Roster Guess (UPDATE: Version 2.0 on Reply #5)

Sprag94 said:
I rather have no Paper Mario in SSB4. King K. Rool, Bowser Jr, Waluigi and Daisy are definitely better choices than Paper Mario.
Click to expand...
Pearl said:
i still think waluigi would be way better than bj or paper mario
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong. I wouldn't be upset if either Bowser Jr. or Waluigi got the fifth Mario spot. It's just I believe Paper Mario's sort of the more likely at the moment. I wouldn't mind Bowser Jr. taking the spot, and while Waluigi would surprise me. He does have Smash potential that might make him a more exciting then most Mario newcomers. (Thought I disagree that Daisy's a better choice then Paper Mario myself :P)

And Sprag, King K. Rool is in no competition with Bowser the Mario characters. His competition is Dixie Kong