Smash Bros. @ E3 Character Reveal Prediction Game

500 - 3rd Party Reveal (Other then Snake and Pac-Man)
- Tails
- Master Chief (why the hell not)
- Mii
400 - Rpg Rep
- Fawful
250 - Melee Veterans that were Cut from Brawl (Other Then Mewtwo) Reveal
- Roy
- Mewtwo
200 - Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep
- Ashley & Red duo
110 - Retro Newcomer Reveal
- Frogger
100 - Pokemon Newcomer Reveal
- Meganium
- Genesect
100 - Mario Newcomer Reveal
- Baby Mario Bros
- Paper Mario
 
Crawler said:
500 - 3rd Party Reveal (Other then Snake and Pac-Man)
- Tails
- Master Chief (why the hell not)
- Mii
400 - Rpg Rep
- Fawful
250 - Melee Veterans that were Cut from Brawl (Other Then Mewtwo) Reveal
- Roy
- Mewtwo
200 - Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep
- Ashley & Red duo
110 - Retro Newcomer Reveal
- Frogger
100 - Pokemon Newcomer Reveal
- Meganium
- Genesect
100 - Mario Newcomer Reveal
- Baby Mario Bros
- Paper Mario
Click to expand...
Mewtwo is only worth 75, dude. *coughashleyisanassisttrophycough*
 
Crawler said:
500 - 3rd Party Reveal (Other then Snake and Pac-Man)
- Tails
- Master Chief (why the hell not)
- Mii
400 - Rpg Rep
- Fawful
250 - Melee Veterans that were Cut from Brawl (Other Then Mewtwo) Reveal
- Roy
- Mewtwo
200 - Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep
- Ashley & Red duo
110 - Retro Newcomer Reveal
- Frogger
100 - Pokemon Newcomer Reveal
- Meganium
- Genesect
100 - Mario Newcomer Reveal
- Baby Mario Bros
- Paper Mario
Click to expand...

Uh, Lolcrawler I need you to fix up your list by quite a bit. You have an already deconfirmed character (Ashley) in there. Unless you truly think they'll make Ashley a playable character when she's already an assist trophy. I suggest changing that.

Also Miis aren't 3rd Party, Fawful is a Mario Newcomer, Not even sure if Master Chief should qualify or I could include him to be 1000 Points on his own just for how unlikely he is (Would anyone like me to add an 1000 for a character that's 3rd Party that's never been on Nintendo and/or a non video-game character :P), and Mewtwo has his own reveal points. I'm afraid I can't put your choices in the game until at least most of these issues are fixed.


Anyway, updated Risk/Safe rankings. Parentheses are potential points.

HIGH RISK

Dragonfreak (2339)
FireEevee (1849)
MCD (1292)
Freakworld (1243)
Shy Guy Forever (1207)
Misty (1177)
Fawfulthegreat (1067)
Smasher (503)

SAFE
 
Super Smash Misty said:
Put Goku and Shrek for five million points
Click to expand...

Won't go that far :P

But for those that care. I decided to include 3rd Parties currently owned by a Rival Company (Like Banjo and Kazooie or Master Chief) as a category that's worth 1000 points. And a non-video game character category worth 2000. I doubt most of you will apply one for any reason other then for shits and giggles. But it might be fair to include it anyway. Anyone worth around 300 and above is extremely unlikely already though. So 1000 and 2000 is there strictly to show just how unlikely when even just 300 points for one character is already unlikely on it's own.
 
500 - 3rd Party Reveal
Bomberman (heavily unlikely, but old IPs could be revived)

200 - Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep
Kamek
Louie

150 - Snake Reveal

135 - Misc. Nintendo Series (Other then Shulk, Chorus Men, and Miis) Newcomer
Captain Rainbow
Someone from Advance Wars (not sure if I can phrase it like it)

64 - SSB64 Veteran Reveal
Captain Falcon
Ness

50 - Unlockable Brawl Veteran reveal
R.O.B

25 - Melee Veterans that Returned in Brawl Reveal
Mr. Game & Watch

15 - Starter Brawl Veteran reveal
Lucas

10 - Any Newcomer in the Sal Leak
Pac-Man
Mii
 
Note: I'm not playing, don't count my points, I am analyzing.
[Daisy] 33%
[Bowser Jr] 33%
[Toad] 22%
[Toad-Toadette Hybrid] 11%
1 of these for sure is in. The other 2 are definitely not in.
(Dixie Kong)
(Ice Climbers)
(Wolf)
(Palutena)
(Mii)
50/50 shot
<Sceptile> 80%
<Jigglypuff> 80%
<Mewtwo> 40%
2 of these are in, 1 is not.
[Captain Falcon]
[Pac Man]
[Chrom]
[Wario]
[Ganondorf]
[Falco]
Fairly Safe stuff.
(Snake)
(Ridley)
25-75 Shot.
<Lucas>
<Ness>
50-50 Shot but mutually exclusive chances.

Not doing any more analysis.
 
3D Player 2004 said:
Note: I'm not playing, don't count my points, I am analyzing.
[Daisy] 33%
[Bowser Jr] 33%
[Toad] 22%
[Toad-Toadette Hybrid] 11%
1 of these for sure is in. The other 2 are definitely not in.
(Dixie Kong)
(Ice Climbers)
(Wolf)
(Palutena)
(Mii)
50/50 shot
<Sceptile> 80%
<Jigglypuff> 80%
<Mewtwo> 40%
2 of these are in, 1 is not.
[Captain Falcon]
[Pac Man]
[Chrom]
[Wario]
[Ganondorf]
[Falco]
Fairly Safe stuff.
(Snake)
(Ridley)
25-75 Shot.
<Lucas>
<Ness>
50-50 Shot but mutually exclusive chances.

Not doing any more analysis.
Click to expand...

You're over estimating and under estimating a few characters:

Overestimated:
Daisy (I'm sorry, but Daisy just does not have the credentials to be included in Smash. Being Luigi's Girlfriend does not make them any more likely if their one main series appearance could have just as easily been Peach. And would likely be a clone of Peach. I'm not saying she couldn't not be a clone. But if Sakurai considered Daisy, she'd likely be a last minute clone to beef up the roster. When that wasn't exactly recieved very well in Melee)
Toad (This I wouldn't mind especially since it'd complete the Big 8. But on the same day that Rosalina was confirmed the psuedo pic of the day was Link shooting an arrow at Toad. Which kind of feels like a metaphor for what would happen later. Rosalina killed most expected Mario newcomer's chances. Bowser Jr. might be the only one that may still have a chance but I kinda doubt even him)

Underestimated
Ice Climbers and Wolf (All characters playable in Brawl except maybe Snake should have chance percentages higher then 50%)
Palutena (Did you not see the direct? The Wii U stage was Palutena's Temple, Pit's Final Smash was changed, and the Psuedo Palutena trophy fake-out plus the possibility of a leaked image being real points toward her having great chances)
Miis (Miis have a better shot then 50/50. If they're not revealed at E3 nor at Tomodach Life's release date in the US. Then you may be right. But it's probably pretty likely we'll see them.
Ness (I'm not 100% sure on Lucas. But really? A member of the Original 12 has only a 50/50 shot at making it in? That is blasphemy)
 
500 - 3rd Party Reveal (Other then Snake and Pac-Man)
Tails confirmed
400 - Smash Bros. gets it's own Rep
Master Hand (Maybe as easter egg)
200 - Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep
Kamek for Yoshi
Captain Syrup for Wario
175 - Star Fox Newcomer Reveal
Krystal
150 - Snake Reveal
100 - Zelda Newcomer Reveal
Ghirahim
100 - Pokemon Newcomer Reveal
Sceptile
100 - Mario Newcomer Reveal
Paper Mario
Bowser Jr.
Toad
80 - Donkey Kong Newcomer reveal
Cranky Kong

I'M GONNA FAIL!
 
With Ike's reveal. He's removed from the Starter Brawl Veteran reveal spot. No one however bet on him (Except for Super Smash Misty's 18 character prediction list that doesn't count). So nothing's really changed in the current game. The only thing is that since Ike's confirmed he's no longer able to be put in prediction lists. And establishing if we get any other early character reveals before E3 (While unlikely, it's possible we get Wario still for Mario Kart 8 next week or Miis for Tomodachi Life in the week before E3. But if not, it's probably because both are pretty likely to be shown off at the direct. Just like how Yoshi wasn't revealed for Yoshi's New Island and was held off until the Smash Direct)
 
10 - Chrom
10 - Palutena
15 - Meta Knight
25 - Falco
64 - Captain Falcon
64 - Jigglypuff
64 - Ness
75 - Mewtwo
100 - Sceptile
135 - Issac
150 - Snake
200 - Ridley

I'm aiming for consistency. Sorta.
 
10-11 days until E3! Now would be the time to place your bets for any users who have not got in the game yet or make some changes to your current bets if you already have your predictions put. Do you go a much safer route to give you the percentage win? Or do you take more risks to attempt to blow away the competition?
 
Toothless said:
500 - 3rd Party Reveal
- Patroklos Alexander
- Tails
200-Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep (For me: AKA Wario characters
-Captain Syrup
-Volt-9
-Princess Shokora
200 - Ridley Reveal
135 - Misc. Nintendo Series (Other then Shulk, Chorus Men, and Miis) Newcomer
-Isaac
100 - Zelda Newcomer Reveal
- Ghirahim
100 - Mario Newcomer
-Bowser Jr.
-Paper Mario
75 - Mewtwo will return
64- Jigglypuff will return

Potential Points: 2374
Click to expand...
I took out Impa and added in Isaac. It's one Nintendo series that they have not used as a playable character (I am not for certain if there is an assist trophy or anything), so maybe they will. It may be a pretty much dead series, but not really anymore dead than the Mother series, and they have two reps.
 
5 Days until E3. And only 4 days left to participate and/or make any changes to your prediction lists. Any changes made on the 9th will not count so if you plan on changing your list in anyway or participating. Make sure to get something in before Monday
 
I'm no good with the points thing but:
3rd party:
Sora

Mario:
Paper Mario

Zelda:
Impa

Pokemon:
Sceptile

DK:
King K . Rool

Fire Emblem:
Chrom

Retro:
Duck Hunt Dog

Miscellaneous:
Shulk

Melee returners:
Ice Climbers
Ganondorf
Falco

Kid Icarus:
Palutena

Brawl Returners:
Wario
Wolf
 
Toothless said:
Toothless said:
500 - 3rd Party Reveal
- Patroklos Alexander
- Tails
200-Any One Character Series (Other then Kid Icarus) gets a 2nd Rep (For me: AKA Wario characters
-Captain Syrup
-Volt-9
-Princess Shokora
200 - Ridley Reveal
135 - Misc. Nintendo Series (Other then Shulk, Chorus Men, and Miis) Newcomer
-Isaac
100 - Zelda Newcomer Reveal
- Ghirahim
100 - Mario Newcomer
-Bowser Jr.
-Paper Mario
75 - Mewtwo will return
64- Jigglypuff will return

Potential Points: 2374
Click to expand...
I took out Impa and added in Isaac. It's one Nintendo series that they have not used as a playable character (I am not for certain if there is an assist trophy or anything), so maybe they will. It may be a pretty much dead series, but not really anymore dead than the Mother series, and they have two reps.
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure it's 9-Volt, not Volt-9
 
Making mine slightly less safe.

200 - Ridley Reveal
135 - Misc. Nintendo Series (Other then Shulk, Chorus Men, and Miis) Newcomer
-Marshal (Rhythm Heaven)
-Isaac (Golden Sun)
-Andy (Wars)
80 - Donkey Kong Newcomer reveal
-King K. Rool
64 - SSB64 Veteran Reveal
-Captain Falcon
-Ness
25 - Melee Veterans that Returned in Brawl Reveal
-Ice Climbers
15 - Starter Brawl Veteran reveal
-Meta Knight
-Wario
10 - Any Newcomer in the Sal Leak
-Pac-Man
-Palutena
 
supermariofan said:
I'm no good with the points thing but:
3rd party:
Sora

Mario:
Paper Mario

Zelda:
Impa

Pokemon:
Sceptile

DK:
King K . Rool

Fire Emblem:
Chrom

Retro:
Duck Hunt Dog

Miscellaneous:
Shulk

Melee returners:
Ice Climbers
Ganondorf
Falco

Kid Icarus:
Palutena

Brawl Returners:
Wario
Wolf
Click to expand...

You have 14. But just in case you can't get here before the end of tomorrow which midnight tomorrow is the deadline. I'll remove your safest (Palutena) and your most risky pick (Sora). If you really want them on your list anyway, make sure to get your post in before it's too late.

Anyway your picks points add up to:

100 + 100 + 100 + 80 + 10 + 110 + 10 + 75 + 15 + 50 = 650



HIGH RISK

Dragonfreak (2374)
YoshiMonsta (2105)
FireEevee (1849)
Yoshi786 (1558)
MCD (1292)
Freakworld (1243)
Shy Guy Forever (1207)
Misty (1177)
Fawfulthegreat (1067)
Crackin355 (912)
Smasher (888)
Supermariofan (650)

SAFE
 
lol everyone is high risk.

I don't feel like making a huge complicated guess list. I tried to predict the characters shown in the direct and I was completely off.
 
GalacticPetey said:
lol everyone is high risk.

I don't feel like making a huge complicated guess list. I tried to predict the characters shown in the direct and I was completely off.
Click to expand...

I don't think it would hurt to try. Even if you get none correctly there's no reward for winning other then the winners can gloat.

There may actually be two winners in all this anyway. Whoever gets the most points overall after E3 (In case another Wii Fit Trainer situation happens. The game won't officially end until we make sure more Smash Bros. reveals at E3 past the initial trailer are not happening). And whoever has the best percentage. (As in who gets the most points that's closest to their prediction score. Like say the winner had about 2000 worth of points but won the competition with 700 points. The one with the percentage can still have their own win if their potential points was a more modest 800 and they got about 400 worth of points.) There might be a few more bonus titles too. But I can't promise those quite yet.
 
Alright, all scoresheets are locked now

Tomorrow will be the big event. The game won't end tomorrow but I'm sure if there's more reveals on days past tomorrow. Then tomorrow should reveal most of what we get.
 
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